Transcript
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Hi everyone. Today we are going to speak about cold start problem in social
marketplaces about balancing supply and demand.
And let's start with definitions. What is social marketplace?
What's the difference with the normal one? Well, if we
open any book and we try to google it, we'll find out something like
that. It's a blend of ecommerce and social media that allows fetching content
and using it for ecommerce needs. And actually, from this
major words, we need only the first couple.
So it's a blend of ecommerce and social media. So it's
the marketplace when you can post some kind of a content
and then you can buy some goods, virtual or real one.
So when you're building it as a startup or as a mature product,
you always have to think about two major things.
One is how to build a marketplace and the second, how to build a media.
And they got some effects between each other.
So what is the cold start problem and why we're so
focused on it, why it's so important in building marketplaces?
Actually, if we open any book about the building marketplaces,
we'll find out that there is three major maturity levels
of marketplaces. It's a cold start when you got nothing, you got no
supply, you got no demand, and you have to solve this chicken and egg problem.
What to start with, supply or demand? Then you move
to the growth stage. When you try to balance your value
proposition and incentives, budget out compete other players, and if
everything goes so well that you're a major player,
you start in the dominance stage when you got the market
share, more than 50%, and your target is
to gradually capture remaining demand until you reach the full
situation. Why the call start is so important because it's
a starting phase. So you cannot build marketplace
avoiding this stage. And actually most of the startups, most of
the new products and new features, they are dying in this stage.
If you pass through it, it's really easier to work with growth
and the dominance. So it's the core of building the marketplaces,
as I said, two major things, media and ecommerce.
And they are not invented by Internet producers,
by product managers, et cetera. These two activities, these two
types of organizations, they coexist for a long time.
So let's talk about the history and
how they coexistent in a short way to understand how they interact
right now, first of all, let's assume that we are in
pre Internet times somewhere in the beginning of the or in
the middle of the 20th century, and we got some kind of a seller
that going to sell some kind of goods. Let's say we
are trying to sell the microphone. So we need to do
two simultaneous things. The first, it's the marketing
and you have to go to offline media to explain
to audience that your microphone is good, how it
works, why you need to buy it, why it's better than competitors.
Or if you just invented the microphone, what is the product is
why you are going to use it. And second thing, you have to
think about the distribution. Okay? Somehow you persuaded your audience
that they need the microphone. They still have to go to offline
store, they still have to exchange money to the microphone or
order the delivery and all the things.
So the offline store, it's the major distribution players
and then they got audience. So people have to look through
ads, so some PR articles, some different kind of
content there, and then they have to go
to store and then they have to perform the transactions.
And actually media and offline source, they wasn't
so aware about the audience, about how they behave,
et cetera. Then Internet came and we
all starting living in the new world where the
traditional media is changed to the social ones and the offline
stores is changed to the online stores. For the seller,
it's quite the same system. You still have to think about the marketing,
you still have to think about the distribution. It's still
the different places. So you have to work with both of them.
But the main difference there, that social media and online
stores started collecting preferences. So they started
to know their audience much better.
Social media knows what you are like and what you dislike,
what kind of content you interact with better and what you
are not. And online stores, they know your
preferences, they know what you bought, what you looked at,
maybe you added to the chart and then you're not
bought it somehow. So everything started moving around
the data about the predictions, about the recommendations. So what
is the social marketplace? It's the thing that
try to blend both content and media part with the
distribution part, because all the preferences can be combined
and they can know the users extremely well. They know about the media
preferences, they know about the distribution preferences.
And actually for the seller it's better because you interact with one
organization. So you give them the idea of your product,
you create the content and it's everything like one involved
all in one shop. So this is the
commercial idea that we can not only make money on distribution,
not only make money on the content, but make all the
money here. So all the marketing spent and all the distribution
spent of the seller can go to one organization. So it's really a
good thing to grow. And actually everyone is
trying to blend and trying to move from the one
thing to another. Because if we see the market landscape,
we see that the traditional media that own the marketing budgets,
they trying to move to the distribution part. So they're trying
to move here from the left part to the right part of the
scheme because they, for example, started working based on the performance.
So you're not paying them for the views or for the number of
users. You start in paying for the number of orders created by
some ad or some placement, et cetera. Actually it's
small, but it's still a move to distribution part. So to understand
the transaction, to understand what content gives you better conversion to transactions,
not only to the views. And the second example, it's ecommerce.
Like the traditional ones, they only sold goods right now.
They start thinking about the content, rating and reviews,
likes, some content produced by the users,
et cetera, everything that can move them up on this scheme
to got more like media or media ish
than the traditional ones, to combine all
business models in one.
As I said, when you are building the social marketplace, you have
to think about the both words. So you have to be focused
on building a good media and you have to be focused on building
a good ecommerce. So both things are
extremely important to survive your cold start phase and
to go through it to the growth phase. So let's start
with media focus areas. First of all, when you think
about the content, it's all about the orchards. So who
is going to produce your content? What's their ideas,
how they are going to interact with your platform? Why? Why do they
need to work with you? Why do they need to work with you? Not what
to the others. Maybe they want to earn money. Maybe they want just
the bigger audience. They want to be famous, et cetera.
Maybe they already create some kind of a content, but they don't know where to
store it. And you can offer them good storage and then maybe
reuse it later. So the first of all, you have to understand
perfectly who is your authors, what their needs, how it works,
et cetera. So it's the first part of your strategy to describe this one.
Then as any media, it's the content. What kind
of content you are going to work with. Would it be texts or pictures
or videos or everything combined, something like the stories,
how they're going to produce it? Do they need the special
devices for it? Or they can use their phones, or they can
voiceovers, et cetera. So what kind of content is.
It's not only about the business strategies, because when you start thinking
about the content types, you, for example, start shaping your technical
strategy, how you're going to store it, do you need the bigger storage or the
smaller ones? How much you're going to cost, how much you're going
to spend to acquire and to store the content by one author.
If you're going to build a video hostage video
things, it's much more storage. So it
will cost you much more than, for example, if you're working with texts or
pictures or you are going to create something on the fly.
Right now we are waiting for the AR and VR revolution
and new devices. It's much more to store there
than the video things. The third thing after the
content is distribution, how we are going to move
the content from the author to the audience.
Shell audience, just subscribe orders or you're going to create a recommendation system
or you don't need the subscription. You just ask the interested of
the audience and then you push the content there like the TikTok does,
et cetera. So this is the major things about the distribution,
because again, it's shaping your business strategy, it's shaping your
product strategy, and you're shaping your technical strategy. If you're
going to create the best in class recommendation systems,
first of all, you have to get some data somewhere and then
you have to create this machine learning algorithm
to create these recommendations. If you're in a cold star phase,
how you are going to do it, you still don't have any alters
and you still don't have any audience. This is the
major things to think about. And the last one, but not the least the
audience. Why should they use your social marketplace,
how you're going to incentivize them, how you're going to attract them,
what kind of user journey, what kind of
value they got from your content and how
you're going to present yourself for the
audience. Segmentations, these four major focus
areas. When we think about the media part of the
social marketplaces, you have to have answers
and descriptions for all the major four parts.
And actually you have to prove all the things. So it's a hypothesis. So you
have to test it. You have to understand your audience better until
you got the perfect strategies to work with later.
The second major part, it's marketplaces. And for
marketplace in the cold start phase,
there is three major focus areas. It's incentives, its flywheels
and its density. Let's start with the major one, with incentives.
Actually you have to think about the potential user CGM
in the real world, because right now they already do something,
they already produce some content or not, they already
live their life, they already buy some products.
And you have to understand in what part of their lives your
product will be fit in, what moment of
life there is the peak value for them,
how you are going to interact with them in terms of the marketing, how you're
going to catch them, what would be the wow moment, how it
affects with it. And when we speak about the CGM, it's not
only about drawing the process and understanding the audience,
it's about the creation, the value proposition that is
relative to competition. So it's not just the value proposition
will give you the money or will give you the audience likes,
et cetera. We always have to think what is the
competitor's proposition? And when they say about the social marketplaces,
it can be anything. It can be reading a book, it can be playing with
children, it can be going to a walk. Everything that consumes time,
that is time that not spent on your product. So when you
create this potential user of CGM, you have to ask yourself,
what would be my value proposition for them relative to the competition
and the last part of the incentives? It's the right
segment. And in my understanding, the key here is
to start with the segment that are somehow underserved by the
current players and by the competitors. So maybe
you can create the video marketplace for those that
cannot using the YouTube and TikTok. I don't know
why. Maybe they don't have the media literacy, so they
don't know how to create a video or they don't have the proper
device and you can create the machine. Learning that, creating a
video from the voice. So I just call the phone,
say some words and then video appears. This is the segment
that is underserved by the current players. It's really the cool thing
about the incentives, because when you're trying to compete with the current audience,
it's extremely difficult to persuade them to
switch. Let's say you're calling the major YouTube blogger with the
major money coming from the YouTube big audience and say, well, we are
startup, we don't have any audience right now, but we really like you and we
want you to move from YouTube or at least to copy your content to
our small and unknown company and unknown product.
Actually, I think that would be some kind of problems with this conversation.
If you find out someone who is not on any big platform
right now and who is creating his content with you and
growing with you, actually it's not only about the attracting
them, it's about the retention. Because when they started
growing with your platform and they created the fortune
together with you, you really stick with them. They are emotionally
stick and they are like economically stick with your product.
After we understood the incentives for all groups of people,
it's really important to think about the flywheels. When we speak
about the content of any type, usually supply more important
than demand because supply sticks longer on your
platform. You can reuse it in different things,
in different ways. You can test different ways
of interacting with the content. So for example, different distribution
mentioned on the previous slides for the same piece of content. You can reuse
it, recut it somehow. If you
somewhere create a demand but you have zero supply,
you just burn your money and your efforts. So the
major things it's to start with supply. If you are going
to start with demand, you have to find the right explanation
to yourself and to your team why you are
going it and trying to test it before.
After you understand how you're going to get the supply.
Actually to create a proper flywheel, you have to create the
multiple gross loops stacked upon each other. So what
do I mean here? Let's say we understood
that we find out the core audience and the core type of content and
they uploaded the first piece of it, the first video, let's say
maybe we can motivate them to share it outside the platform
and to invite some audience, maybe friends, maybe family,
maybe business partners, et cetera. The process should be
extremely easy for them and the motivation from the
incentives part should be clear and clear for them.
Let's say we created this first growth loop and we
attracted some kind of audience that trying to interact with the content.
We have to think about the second growth loops stacked on top of the first
one. Maybe it's a sharing, maybe it's some kind of a competition or a challenge.
So when you see the video, you have to recreate it by your own.
We have to give some tools to do it easily, et cetera.
So the more growth loops we stacked upon each other, the better fly
will swing up. Why? It's important because we have to
build the network effects. All marketplaces are based on
the idea that the more audience gives you more value of
the product. If you take YouTube, everyone is creating
the video. You can create video on anything there. So even those
who use YouTube for free, they not pay anything and
they produce not much views. They still
produce the value for YouTube because it fits
for the recommendations, it's improving for the search engines. So you
have to think about what would be the network effects
after I invented and started interacting with
the first types of audience, with the first customers.
And when we think about the network effects,
here comes the third major things. It's density.
Because when you took any kind of marketplace,
almost any, it's not the same unified
thing as we can see here in the picture. There is some different
regions in this city, and some of them are quite dense
and some of them are not. So each marketplace, it's a combination
of isolated submarkets. If we speak about
the content, the first one is a language. If you are creating content
that needed to be understanded, like it's a text or
a video with voiceover, et cetera, or some memes with
text, it has to be understanded. So you got the
submarket based on the language. The second type, for example,
is the thematic. So if you are going to create some content about
the cars, it is. If I'm not interested in cars,
it would not be my content. If you are going to create some content about,
I don't know, the math or the chemistry or anything
else. This one, the submarket.
And you have to understand its size. And you have to understand, are you
dense in this particular market? So, for example,
english videos about the chemistry, it's quite
well articulated submarket. And if you got new
suppliers and new content creators, which is
creating the videos about the chemistry,
but in Japanese, they are not creating density for the
submarket, they're creating for the different ones. So you cannot measure it on average.
You have to measure the density on each submarkets and
to achieve it on the first phase, when we are on the cold
start, we don't have much audience there. It's really
useful and really easy to focus on some selected
submarkets and experiences there. So try new
things there and see is it work or not? And after you find
some good mechanics about the content, about the orders,
about the distribution or the audience, you then after
you test it on some small things, you can move it and scale
it to grow markets around it.
This thing, you have to understand it so you can create the
same product in terms of features and values,
how they upload content, how they like it, how they comment it, et cetera.
And it can be universal. But when we speak about the marketing,
when we speak about the partnership, how we are going to attract the audience,
how we are going to incentivize them, this is right place
to think about the submarkets and to focus your marketing and your partnerships
efforts. Well, if you want me to conclude?
How to survive the cold start phase. When you're building
the social marketplaces, there is three major things.
First, find right incentives. Until you got right
incentives for your audience, it's useless. Then after you
find right incentive, this kind of incentive have to start the flywheels
start and produce spinning. So you have to think about the
features, you have to think about some characteristics of your product
that not only intensifies people to come there, but to attract
new users and to create growth for you that is not driven
by the paid marketing, but driven by the users itself.
And at the end, you have to increase density by
these flywheels in focus submarkets. And one by one,
you can close the markets on the density level that
you're okay with, that your possible investors, okay with your
team, et cetera. And then it started growing by itself.
So, thank you.